It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. The departures of Mark Canha and Starling Marte are a real setback for Oakland, but the lineups core remains intact. The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons. ITS ANGELS TIME! With their rebuilding phase quickly coming to an end, they traded for Jesse Winker, Eugenio Surez, and Adam Frazier, and signed Ray to a long-term contract. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. Sign up for the Below are the previous parts. I dont think they expected to be able to sign him to an extension. Theyre bound to be better than last year, if only because it would take a disaster of a season to repeat their 2021 failures. In truth, the projections for Arizona were so positive on the whole that I actually went back and double-checked every park factor and calculation specific to the Diamondbacks and their minor league affiliates. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. As everything sits today, PECOTA gives the Braves a 7% to win the World Series, a very strong number, and a 45% chance to win the division, almost identical to the Mets. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). But the offense is thoroughly uninspiring wherever you look. This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. We had four good months last year. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. So what *does* Chicago have to spend? If the goal was to sign him to an extension no matter what, then they should have signed some players to play with him this year and next, while his salary is still relatively low. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. Reservations are proceeded at phone no. Read the rest of this entry . All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The exercise continues this offseason. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. The NHL has passed the mathematical midpoint of the 2022-23 regular season. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven. The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. And the pitching still goes pretty deep so its really hard to imagine that they are anywhere near the Royals next year, even in this state. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. Like the rest of the teams in this tier, the Royals are just oozing with young talent. The exercise continues this offseason. Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. The RosterResource 2023 Opening Day Roster Tracker Is Here! Of the 10 bases-empty bunts that he attempted in 2022, eight went towards first base. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. Welcome back, baseball! If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. The exercise continues this offseason. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. Read the rest of this entry . The exercise continues this offseason. I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. It was a sight to see. Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 19982000 Yankees. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . But it would be a lot easier to do if they could bring back Freddie Freeman. Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but hes also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The Mets appear certain to drop a lot of cash this winter, but again, they need to, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, Brandon Nimmo, and, well, much of the bullpen all heading to the open market. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. I cant say Im displeased to see Luis Uras at the top of the batter list Ive long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year but Id definitely be uneasy about having him as my teams best player. The premium ad-free membership. Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. And then theres the Orioles. Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. The haul of prospects theyre getting back in these trades should form the core of the next great As roster hopefully right around when a new stadium on the Oakland waterfront is opening up. Looking at which projections went the most wayward is definitely an exercise that makes me soul cringe a bit, but in any model, being wrong is an important component of eventually being right. They will play a number of baseball games in 2023 and win at least a handful of them. The Marlins find themselves on even footing with the teams in this tier behind the strength of their exciting pitching staff. ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. ZiPS sees the Twins rotation as increasingly deep, but without any huge upside, and Carlos Correa will almost certainly be in another teams uniform come Opening Day. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. by Handedness, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1124 2023 1B Rankings Preview #1, https://media.blubrry.com/rotographs/cdn-podcasts.fangraphs.com/RotoGraphs-Audio-01-09-2023.mp3, Justin Masons Baseball Chat January 9th, 2023. This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are both on the wrong side of 35, and the former has already dealt with some minor injuries this spring. Yup! The Cardinals probably have the best shot at toppling the Brewers atop the NL Central, but their case took a blow when Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes went down with shoulder woes. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. The Twins surprised everyone when they landed Correa as their starting shortstop. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders. Create an account to follow your favorite communities and start taking part in conversations. They wildly outperformed their projections a year ago and then had a ton of turnover on their roster during the offseason. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. Like the Rangers, the Cubs are hoping that they can skip a few steps in The Process by adding talent through free agency. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think! Whats more encouraging is the top prospects who are one year closer to making their major league debuts; Alek Thomas and Corbin Carroll could both show up at some point during the season. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. That was Milwaukees focus this offseason, trading for Hunter Renfroe and signing Andrew McCutchen to supplement the lineup. Speaking of unanswered questions: Will Christian Yelich return to being the MVP-caliber player he was in 2018 and 19, or is the seriously diminished production of the last two years his new baseline? by Retrosheet. by Retrosheet. With one major exception, most of the problems now are accuracy rather than bias. Renfroe is actually helpful for an organization that has proven bad at surrounding its stars with secondary talent, but theres a lot to do if the Angels are going to even maintain this place in the standings. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Its supposed to be, fool me once shame on you, fool me cant get fooled again.. It's our predicted best guess on the early college basketball rankings after Week 11. ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. Make no mistake even with their long-time franchise icon out of the picture after 12 seasons, the Braves are reloaded and ready to rock. Read the rest of this entry . For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. They signed Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen to round out their rotation and Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, and Archie Bradley to support Raisel Iglesias in the bullpen. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Read the rest of this entry . ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Indeed, according to FantasyPros, the ATC projections have been the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. At least its steamed crab season! At 12:53 a.m. Sunday, officers went to the 900 block of Greensboro Court on a report of a . And at that number Cleveland wont play. Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal. They had a fantastic offseason, adding Kevin Gausman to replace reigning AL CY Young winner Robbie Ray as well as adding to the back of their rotation with Yusei Kikuchi. The methodology Im using here is the same one I use in the regular season, and as such, it isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings. #1 Adley Rutschman. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer. 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